Pygoscelis adeliae is found along the entire Antarctic coast and some of its nearby islands. Individuals are dispersive, moving towards areas of persistent sea ice to moult after breeding (Ainley et al. 2010). Numbers are increasing in the Ross Sea region and decreasing in the Peninsula region, with the net global population increasing overall (Ainley et al. 2010). However, analyses based on the modelling of climate effects suggest that the population could start to decline in a few decades (Ainley et al. 2010, D. Ainley in litt. 2012). Although these declines may only start after a warming of 2Â°C above pre-industrial levels is reached, and overall trends will potentially be positive before this point (D. Ainley in litt. 2012), BirdLife International has precautionarily projected a population decline approaching 30% over the next three generations, factoring in the potential for negative impacts to take place within this timescale, as well as substantial uncertainties over climate predictions and the adaptability of the species.
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